In a previous post, we’ve speculated that the population size of Chabad in the United States could be calculated by working backwards, starting from the number of students in Chabad day schools, and multiplying that number by the average household size.
Well, in this post, we’ve estimated the number of students in Chabad day schools (whom we assume are being raised in Chabad homes) at 12,296. And in this post, we’ve reported that the average household size and other figures in the Montreal Chabad community. If we assume that the demographic profiles of Chabad in Montreal and that of Chabad in the US match each other, the formula to estimate the size of Chabad in the Unted States would be:
•The number of schoolchildren divided by the number of households with children equals the number of US Chabad households with children.
•The number of households with children times the average household size (for households with children) equals the number if persons in households with children
•The number of households with children times itself plus percentage of childless households equals the total number of US Chabad households
•The number of total households times the average household size (for all households) equals the total number of persons in US in Chabad households.
So there you have it!!! An formula for estimating for Chabad in the United States.
And here’s the numbers…
|Schoolchildren to households|
|12,296||Children in US Chabad Day School|
|4.63||Mean number of children per non-childless household (Montreal)|
|2,655.72||Mean number of US households with children (12,296/4.63)|
|6.67||Mean size of household with children (Montreal)|
|17,713.68||Mean number of US households with children times mean size (2,655.72*6.67)|
|5,417.68||Adults and others members of household not in school (17,713.68-12,296)|
|2.04||Average number of persons per US household not in school (5,417.68/2,255.72)|
|22%||Percentage of (total) households with no children at home (Montreal)|
|47%||Percentage of childless households with only one occupant (Montreal)|
|3,239.98||Mean US households, both with and without children (2,655.72*1.22)|
|584.26||US households without children (3,239.98-2,655.72)|
|274.60||US households with one occupant (584.26*0.47)|
|309.66||US households with no children but with two (or more) occupants (584.26-274.60)|
|17,713.68||Number of persons in all households with children|
|>619.31||Number of persons in childless households with two occupants or more (309.66*(>2))|
|274.60||Number of persons in childless households with one occupant|
|>18,607.59||Total number of persons in US Chabad households|