In a previous post, we’ve speculated that the population size of Chabad in the United States could be calculated by working backwards, starting from the number of students in Chabad day schools, and multiplying that number by the average household size.
Well, in this post, we’ve estimated the number of students in Chabad day schools (whom we assume are being raised in Chabad homes) at 12,296. And in this post, we’ve reported that the average household size and other figures in the Montreal Chabad community. If we assume that the demographic profiles of Chabad in Montreal and that of Chabad in the US match each other, the formula to estimate the size of Chabad in the Unted States would be:
•The number of schoolchildren divided by the number of households with children equals the number of US Chabad households with children.
•The number of households with children times the average household size (for households with children) equals the number if persons in households with children
•The number of households with children times itself plus percentage of childless households equals the total number of US Chabad households
•The number of total households times the average household size (for all households) equals the total number of persons in US in Chabad households.
So there you have it!!! An formula for estimating for Chabad in the United States.
And here’s the numbers…
Schoolchildren to households | |
12,296 | Children in US Chabad Day School |
4.63 | Mean number of children per non-childless household (Montreal) |
2,655.72 | Mean number of US households with children (12,296/4.63) |
6.67 | Mean size of household with children (Montreal) |
17,713.68 | Mean number of US households with children times mean size (2,655.72*6.67) |
5,417.68 | Adults and others members of household not in school (17,713.68-12,296) |
2.04 | Average number of persons per US household not in school (5,417.68/2,255.72) |
Households continued | |
22% | Percentage of (total) households with no children at home (Montreal) |
47% | Percentage of childless households with only one occupant (Montreal) |
3,239.98 | Mean US households, both with and without children (2,655.72*1.22) |
584.26 | US households without children (3,239.98-2,655.72) |
274.60 | US households with one occupant (584.26*0.47) |
309.66 | US households with no children but with two (or more) occupants (584.26-274.60) |
Totals | |
17,713.68 | Number of persons in all households with children |
>619.31 | Number of persons in childless households with two occupants or more (309.66*(>2)) |
274.60 | Number of persons in childless households with one occupant |
>18,607.59 | Total number of persons in US Chabad households |
When it comes to the USA 1.In Crown Heights there is a much larger percentage of singels being 1 many signals come to Crown Heights to be in the best location for Shidduchim (match making).
2.Crown Heights has a higher percentage of newlyweds as many couples start off married life in Crown Heights.
3.When it comes to Shluchim and their families whom live in small cities and towns they don’t send their children to Chabad schools.
4. there are many new communities with lots of young children who will be before or just starting school.
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Thank you for the insight.
Perhaps we can adjust our estimate based on your comment as follows:
Let us Assume the households in communities with children sent to Chabad schools remains the same at 2,655, times 6.67 (the average Chabad household size) = 17,713
And let us also assume there are up to 1,000 households of Shluchim in the USA whose children (let’s assume all have) are not represented in Chabad schools, times 6.67 = <6670
Finally, let us assume that singles and couples without children are underrepresented in Crown Heights so that instead of 584 childless households, lets say its around 3,000. And for the sake of our rough estimate let's assume that half are couples with no kids and the other half are households with four singles in a shared accommodation, so these 3,000 childless households are multiplied by an average of 3 persons to each household = ~9000 people in childless households (couples + singles in shared accommodation).
Totals
17,713 persons in regular American Chabad households with children
<6,670 persons in households of Chabad Shluchim with children
~9,000 persons in households of Chabad singles and newly married couples living in Crown Heights or elsewhere.
Equals 33,383 (which is our initial estimate times 1.79)
So let's say our final estimate is somewhere between 18,600 and 33,380.
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